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FDP Forum / Moe's Tavern (_8^(I) / If Irma hits as badly as some are predicting and what with the damages from Harvey...

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rok-a-bill-e
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Nashville,USA

Clawhammer Rules!
Sep 7th, 2017 03:55 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

Jake is exactly right, which means that he will be a lonely voice crying in the wilderness. Most people think that you can somehow wreck your way to prosperity. And many of those are legislators and officials.

BlondeStrat
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Las Vegas NV

Can't complain but sometimes I still do
Sep 7th, 2017 03:57 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

"Most people think that you can somehow wreck your way to prosperity."

Anyone you can name that believes that?

I'd be interested too know who they are. ;)

BlondeStrat
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Las Vegas NV

Can't complain but sometimes I still do
Sep 7th, 2017 04:04 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

I'm working from memory here, but I'm pretty sure that after one of these hurricanes that leveled vast areas (maybe Rita in Alabama?) ... Residential Land was bought up and turned into parks and lakes and whatever else.

Net effect being, next hurricane coming through has virtually nothing of great value to destroy.

The monetary effect is spend a dollar today to save five or ten (or who knows how much) in the future by eliminating this human catastrophe from ever being such a huge reality in the future.

(This message was last edited by BlondeStrat at 06:09 PM, Sep 7th, 2017)

jhawkr
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Wichita, KS USA

It's all gravy from here on...
Sep 7th, 2017 04:06 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

"Careful with this, see "Broken Window Fallacy". It does not follow that we would want hurricanes to deliver destruction at a much higher rate than they have in the past because the economy would be so much better for it."


I no way intended to advocate destruction as a way to prosperity or taxing to create jobs, etc., etc. But you can't control hurricanes and some people will necessarily benefit. Otherwise, nothing would get rebuilt. Just being real. We don't advocate bad people or burning down houses but it happens and firemen an police benefit by having jobs.

NoSoapRadio
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Mass., Amerika

CO2 ... is there anything it can't do?
Sep 7th, 2017 04:13 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

Glossing over who will foot the bill in the short term, we are witnessing evolution here. These storms take out the structures that have been lucky to survive over the years. It's always just been a matter of time.

They will be replaced with structures built to modern codes and will presumably be less of a liability for a generation or two.

Of course, this is no consolation for a family who just lost their hundred year old house to a hundred year storm.

I don't think these storms will have an impact one way or the other -- depreciation of our collective assets is built into our economy.

buster strings
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Kentucky

Rafe Hollister is a friend of mine
Sep 7th, 2017 04:21 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

In the case of Houston and so many of those homeowners not covered by flood insurance, I wonder how many will simply just walk away, leaving the bank holding the note.
If you had a $200,000 home pre Harvey, still owed $150,000 and have $75,000 or $80,000 in uninsured damage, there sure isn't much incentive to tough it out.

Jake
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West Chester PA

Wait, what?
Sep 7th, 2017 04:53 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

"The monetary effect is spend a dollar today to save five or ten (or who knows how much) in the future by eliminating this human catastrophe from ever being such a huge reality in the future."

As long as you do exactly that, sure. There will be enormous pressure to rebuild conventionally in vulnerable areas though.

Jake
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West Chester PA

Wait, what?
Sep 7th, 2017 04:55 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

"I no way intended to advocate destruction as a way to prosperity or taxing to create jobs, etc., etc. "

Understood.

I guess the thing is where certain individuals and companies on the one hand can get jobs, and in fact the demand for day labor in Houston is up bigly, you have to weigh that against assets being vaporized and disappearing into the ether.

BlondeStrat
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Las Vegas NV

Can't complain but sometimes I still do
Sep 7th, 2017 05:23 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

"As long as you do exactly that, sure. There will be enormous pressure to rebuild conventionally in vulnerable areas though."

Here's an irony for you:

The Government repeatedly pays out Huge Money to rebuild private property post disaster after disaster ...

Yet the Government keeps a strangle hold on millions and millions of acres of land in the Western United States protecting it from private ownership and private use and that you couldn't damage with anything short of a nuclear bomb.

Logic might lead one to wonder if they have that Bass Akwards.

(This message was last edited by BlondeStrat at 07:42 PM, Sep 7th, 2017)

Jake
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West Chester PA

Wait, what?
Sep 7th, 2017 05:45 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

BlondeStrat ever read Thomas Sowell's stuff? Where official policy changes constraints and incentives, the markets will respond, and maybe in the opposite way that they figured when they came up with the policy.

jazzguy

Philly, B-3 Capital

don't dream it be it
Sep 7th, 2017 06:13 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

"Our economy is in great shape at present. Best in years"

I agree w/the second sentence the first not so much.


rok-a-bill-e
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Nashville,USA

Clawhammer Rules!
Sep 7th, 2017 06:15 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

----"Anyone you can name that believes that?---I'd be interested too know who they are. ;)---

----On September 14, 2001, Krugman used his New York Times column to lecture Big Apple residents about the upside of the utter destruction of the World Trade Center and a good chunk of lower Manhattan just a few days earlier: "Now, all of a sudden, we need some new office buildings...the destruction isn't big compared with the economy, but rebuilding will generate at least some increase in business spending."

or, after hurricane Sandy, by "economist" Peter Morici

-----"The Upside
"Disasters can give the ailing construction sector a boost, and unleash smart reinvestment that actually improves stricken areas and the lives of those that survive intact."

I'm avoiding legislators and officials in order to stay within forum guideline, but honestly I could go on all day. ; >

Chris Greene
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Idaho, USA

Don't tell me town ain't got no heart
Sep 7th, 2017 06:34 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

I think we can have this discussion without doing the political side of things. We all know what the bastards in DC do so I suppose my question is, in spite of them, what happens if Irma is an even bigger disaster?

BlondeStrat
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Las Vegas NV

Can't complain but sometimes I still do
Sep 7th, 2017 06:36 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

rok-a-bill-e, those example sound to me a lot like the comments here on the FDP.

Folks making statements about the potential for some positive aspects coming in the aftermath of something devastating that has already happened.

Not folks saying hey, let's go make a bunch of self inflicted messes in really nice places so we can improve everyone's prosperity.

I get that if you destroy an aging, derelict poverty stricken area (human hardship aside) you have an opportunity to truly change it in ways that could make it more prosperous. There though we are cherry picking situations.

Don't bother to keep looking though, I just don't buy your statement as quoted to begin with.

rok-a-bill-e
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Nashville,USA

Clawhammer Rules!
Sep 7th, 2017 06:53 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

That's cool, just saying that we hear this after every disaster, as if there is an upside to destruction. I'm just pointing out that destruction is always a net loss, and if that seems too obvious to even say, then just notice how often you will hear it.

And, treading carefully here, you will find the same principle working outside of disasters, such as a large government expenditure which will require hiring workers and awarding contracts. The buzz word is "infrastructure", and if we need it, then we need it, but often projects are proposed and approved on the basis of Pork for the locals. But all of those expenditures are paid for by tax money taken from other people who had their own plans for that money. We see the new jobs, but we don't see the people laid off as a result. We see the highway but we don't see the thousands of private transactions that never happened, and that had an economic impact as well.
That's all that I'm saying, no big deal.

HenryJ
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Bogue Falaya River

is STILL dark and cold.
Sep 9th, 2017 12:58 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

About 25 years ago, when I was a retail store manager, the district manager once stated "What we need is a good hurricane." He was half-kidding, as we were in a sales slump as a district.

The biggest non-Christmas month I ever had was when I was running a store in an area with a large rural population, no cable, and a hurricane came through and destroyed people's outside TV antennas. Nobody was killed, maybe a broken arm here or there. We sold a LOT of big TV antennas.

It was good for my store's economy.

That was 20 years before Katrina. Nobody wants a hurricane now.

hushnel
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North Florida

A Friend of Bill W.
Sep 9th, 2017 01:48 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

Net loss or net gain, I guess it depends on your appreciation of history or assumptions of future improvement.

Once its gone though something will fill the void, whether it's better or worse is what needs consideration.


BlondeStrat
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Las Vegas NV

Can't complain but sometimes I still do
Sep 9th, 2017 01:50 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

We had a similar deal when I was running a store in Seal Beach CA.

It was about 1982 and we had a storm that tore most all of the piers off into the ocean. Seal Beach pier was gone.

Our store was emptied out of anything survival related.

Te 52

Laws of Physics

strictly enforced
Sep 9th, 2017 03:43 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

...The academic evidence on the economic impact of natural disasters is..."

...mixed."

Previous 20 Messages  

FDP Forum / Moe's Tavern (_8^(I) / If Irma hits as badly as some are predicting and what with the damages from Harvey...




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