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FDP Forum / Moe's Tavern (_8^(I) / If Irma hits as badly as some are predicting and what with the damages from Harvey...

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Chris Greene
FDP Host

Idaho, USA

Don't tell me town ain't got no heart
Sep 7th, 2017 02:04 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

how do you think this will affect the national economy as we ever so slowly are still recovering from 2007-8?

Leftee
Contributing Member
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VA

One foot on the brake, one on the GAS
Sep 7th, 2017 02:16 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

I honestly think it will be a shot in the arm.

Guitar Fool
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Sunshine State

Just a pawn in someone else's game
Sep 7th, 2017 02:16 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

aside from the initial spike in products purchased prior to both of these events, food, provisions, gasoline, etc., I'm sure it will take a major hit.....insurance claims, loss revenue from companies temporarily put out of business..people out of work...it could be quite a mess for awhile.

I'm guessing at least a 6 month step backwards before it rebounds but what do I know, I'm just a guitar player

Pinetree
Moderator Emeritus
(with many stars)

NW Pennsylvania

Sep 7th, 2017 02:25 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

I visited Homestead, FL years after Andrew.

You'd never know that a hurricane had ripped through there, except that the trees were gone and a lot of the businesses had been replaced by different ones.

+1 for a shot in the arm, but that's YEARS down the road.



jhawkr
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Wichita, KS USA

It's all gravy from here on...
Sep 7th, 2017 02:31 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

One mans devastation is another mans opportunity. Building materials, labor will be up for awhile. Home Depot Lowe's stock ought to do pretty well...

The thing about Harvey is the insurance companies are not on the hook for most of the flooding. That falls to you and me, or, the National Debt.

BbendFender
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American Patriot

About as ordinary as you can get.
Sep 7th, 2017 02:36 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

Our economy is in great shape at present. Best in years.

Lots going on in S. Florida and the lower east coast. Insurance companies have lots of cash but seldom want to let go of much. Lots of people will be homeless but we have recovered from other storms. Having 2 come within 2 weeks is really tough.


larryguitar19
Contributing Member
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South Florida

larryguitar
Sep 7th, 2017 02:40 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

I'm in Palm Beach County. I had an opportunity to leave and sit this out. But I couldn't get a flight out for the girlfriend. I debated and decided I could not abandon her. I should have planned this on Monday. But by Tuesday it was too late.

BlondeStrat
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Las Vegas NV

Can't complain but sometimes I still do
Sep 7th, 2017 02:49 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

It will create jobs, sadly though they are going to be primarily Government funded jobs.

Leftee
Contributing Member
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VA

One foot on the brake, one on the GAS
Sep 7th, 2017 02:54 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

I'm wondering how FL is going to handle this. Their "anti-gouging" law is misguided and is detrimental to recovery.

I remember the last big hurricane that did damage in FL. For over a year after that I remember flying in and out of FL and seeing the tarps on peoples' roofs. There weren't enough roofers to handle the workload. And there was no incentive for roofers to come in from other states, live in hotels, and fix roofs.

I see already there are "gouging" complaints out of S. FL.

Jake
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West Chester PA

Wait, what?
Sep 7th, 2017 03:09 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

"One mans devastation is another mans opportunity. "

Careful with this, see "Broken Window Fallacy". It does not follow that we would want hurricanes to deliver destruction at a much higher rate than they have in the past because the economy would be so much better for it.

Steve M
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USA

Sep 7th, 2017 03:10 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

Insurance stocks take a hit, on a small scale some markets see less purchasing power for discretonary items.

All those houses have to be fixed and all those cars have to be replaced.

What private insurance doesn't cover will hit federal flood insurance, which is all of us paying, or straight relief which is also all of us paying.

That money will generally have a positive economic effect.



Taildragger
Contributing Member
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USA

"toxic masculinity personified"
Sep 7th, 2017 03:11 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

How about homeowner's insurance rates?

Jake
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West Chester PA

Wait, what?
Sep 7th, 2017 03:11 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

"Gouging", i.e. keep price controls out of the picture, allows market price signals to producers and suppliers to bring in more of the high priced thing and to consumers to conserve whatever they have. This may be even more important in a crisis.

John Stossel piece

Jake
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West Chester PA

Wait, what?
Sep 7th, 2017 03:13 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

And I am sorry to say that destruction of any kind is always a net loss to the economy, see Opportunity Cost.

Pinetree
Moderator Emeritus
(with many stars)

NW Pennsylvania

Sep 7th, 2017 03:16 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

A lot of what Leftee is referring to was caused by the state changing the building codes for roofing on a near daily basis.



Jake
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West Chester PA

Wait, what?
Sep 7th, 2017 03:29 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

"That money will generally have a positive economic effect."

Only short run and locally. Long term it's a direct loss.

If what you say is true we would want many more hurricanes, or we would be talking about some "optimum rate" for hurricane occurrence to boost the economy.

The question isn't what you see (the local increase in jobs to clean up and rebuild) but what you **don't** see (other things that could be done with the resources while still having sound buildings and cars and infrastructure).

Frédéric Bastiat figured this out back in 1850, required reading:

That Which Is Seen, and That Which Is Not Seen

Leftee
Contributing Member
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VA

One foot on the brake, one on the GAS
Sep 7th, 2017 03:32 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

Pine tree,

I was not aware of that.

BlondeStrat
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Las Vegas NV

Can't complain but sometimes I still do
Sep 7th, 2017 03:41 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

As far as America as a whole, I don't think the effect will be terrible. As I noted earlier ... it will create jobs.

Around Houston and South Florida and maybe Georgia and South Carolina (we don't know where all the damage will occur) it could be devastating.

People and companies will have to restore and rebuild. That will create prosperity for those involved in doing the task..

As I said previously though, most of the money will be Government funded ... which is the least productive method of stimulating the American economy.

Or so it seems to me.

Edited to add: Jake, I can't imagine anyone here is advocating for more and bigger Hurricanes, seems a bit silly to grasp at that ;)

(This message was last edited by BlondeStrat at 05:44 PM, Sep 7th, 2017)

Jake
Contributing Member
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West Chester PA

Wait, what?
Sep 7th, 2017 03:45 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

"it will create jobs"

Better to have jobs created from some non-destructive force.

Fundamentally this is destructive.

Sorry to be so fixated on this but I like to read about this stuff.

BlondeStrat
Contributing Member
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Las Vegas NV

Can't complain but sometimes I still do
Sep 7th, 2017 03:49 PM   Edit   Profile   Print Topic   Search Topic

'Fundamentally this is destructive."

That right there is exactly what Hurricanes are ... Destructive.

Sadly, that goes without saying and there isn't a thing any of us can do to change it. :(

edited to add: Short of maybe just DON'T rebuild in these coastal areas of the South. Zone it all for Golf courses, nature trails, fishing and some shipping ports.

(This message was last edited by BlondeStrat at 05:53 PM, Sep 7th, 2017)

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FDP Forum / Moe's Tavern (_8^(I) / If Irma hits as badly as some are predicting and what with the damages from Harvey...




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